Macro Scenario × ETF Signal Matrix v4
新增 Soft Landing；修正 UUP、SHY、USO、IBIT。
| ETF | Asset Class |
🌱 Reflation |
✨ Goldilocks |
🛬 Soft Landing |
🔥 Overheating |
⚠️ Stagflation |
🌧 Recession |
💧 Liquidity Bull |
🔒 Liquidity Bear |
🛡 Risk-Off |
| BROAD EQUITIES |
| SPY | US Large-Cap Stocks | ▲ | ▲▲ | ▲▲ | ▽▽ | ▽ | ▽▽ | ▲▲ | ▽▽ | ▽▽▽ |
| DIA | Industrial Blue Chips | ▲ | ▲▲ | ▲ | ▽ | ▽ | ▽▽ | ▲▲ | ▽ | ▽▽ |
| QQQ | Tech & Growth | ▲▲ | ▲▲ | ▲▲▲ | ▽ | ▽▽ | ▽▽ | ▲▲▲ | ▽▽▽ | ▽▽ |
| SOXX | Semiconductors | ▲▲ | ▲▲ | ▲▲▲ | ▽ | ▽▽ | ▽▽ | ▲▲▲ | ▽▽▽ | ▽▽ |
| SECTORS |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | → | → | → | ▽ | ▲ | ▲ | → | → | ▲▲ |
| XLI | Industrials | ▲▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▽ | ▽ | ▽▽ | ▲ | ▽ | ▽▽ |
| FIXED INCOME |
| SHY | 1-3Y Treasury | → | → | ▲ | ▽▽ | ▽ | ▲ | → | → | ▲▲ |
| TLT | 20Y+ Treasury | ▽ | ▲ | ▲▲ | ▽▽▽ | ▽▽ | ▲▲▲ | ▲▲ | ▽▽ | ▲▲▲ |
| JNK | High Yield Bond | ▲ | ▲▲ | ▲▲ | ▽ | ▽▽ | ▽▽▽ | ▲▲ | ▽▽ | ▽▽▽ |
| CURRENCY |
| UUP | US Dollar | ▽ | → | ▽ | ▲▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▽▽ | ▲▲ | ▲▲ |
| COMMODITIES |
| GLD | Gold | ▲ | → | ▲ | ▲▲ | ▲▲ | ▲ | ▲▲ | → | ▲▲▲ |
| CPER | Copper | ▲▲ | ▲ | → | ▲ | ▽ | ▽▽▽ | ▲ | ▽ | ▽▽▽ |
| USO | WTI Oil | ▲▲ | ▲ | → | ▲▲▲ | ▲▲ | ▽▽ | ▲ | ▽ | ▽▽ |
| CRYPTO |
| IBIT | Bitcoin | ▲▲ | ▲▲ | ▲▲ | ▽ | ▽▽ | ▽▽▽ | ▲▲▲ | ▽▽▽ | ▽▽ |
| VOLATILITY |
| VIXY | VIX | ▽ | ▽▽ | ▽▽ | ▲ | ▲▲ | ▲▲ | ▽▽ | ▲▲ | ▲▲▲ |
Scenario Confidence:
5+ ETFs aligned = High Confidence
3–4 ETFs aligned = Medium Confidence
1–2 ETFs aligned = Low Confidence